厦门市汀溪灌区总干渠洪水复核方法探讨

汀溪灌区作为汀溪水库群的农业供水对象,其灌溉用水量的大小直接关系到汀溪水库群向翔安、同安两区的水资源供需平衡,甚至影响厦门市水资源配置方案。但由于灌溉面积和渠道功能发生变化,有必要进行洪水分析复核从而重新确定工程规模。本文对汀溪灌区总干渠洪水复核方法进行探讨,供参考。     

Probabilistic cost prediction for submarine power cable projects

It is estimated that Europe alone will need to add over 250,000 km of transmission capacity by 2050, if it is to meet renewable energy production goals while maintaining security of supply. Estimating the cost of new transmission infrastructure is difficult, but it is crucial to predict these costs as accurately as possible, given their importance to the energy transition. Transmission capacity expansion plans are often founded on optimistic projections of expansion costs. We present probabilistic predictive models of the cost of submarine power cables, which can be used by policymakers, industry, and academia to better approximate the true cost of transmission expansion plans. The models are both generalizable and well-specified for a variety of submarine applications, across a variety of regions. The best performing statistical learning model has slightly more predictive power than a simpler, linear econometric model. The specific decision context will determine whether the extra data gathering effort for the statistical learning model is worth the additional precision. A case study illustrates that incorporating the uncertainty associated with the cost prediction to calculate risk metrics - value-at-risk and conditional-value-at-risk - provides useful information to the decision-maker about cost variability and extremes.     

Mapping and classification of direct flood impacts in the complex conditions of an urban environment. The case study of the 2014 flood in Athens,Greece

Urban flooding is a gradually increasing problem as the urban population expands into floodplains. In urban environments, flood vulnerability is significantly increased as a more concentrated population and assets makes flooding costly and challenging, in terms of impact estimation. This work focuses on mapping and classifying impacts after the catastrophic 2014 flood in Athens, Greece. The study proposes a method for classifying flood effects into four categories including: the natural and built environment, mobile objects and human population, organized in five classes of increasing severity, i.e. minor, weak, moderate, strong and extreme. Flood effects are grouped based on the qualitative nature of the recorded effects, allowing the development of an impact-severity map. Mapping of the 2014 flood effects indicated specific locations where the severity of impacts was distinctively higher than others, providing a holistic overview of the flood’s effects and highlighting the usefulness of the approach in future flood protection planning.     

南昌市主要气候要素变化特征及其预测

基于南昌市1951~2015年逐月降水和平均气温数据,借助不均匀系数、集中度分析降水年内分配特征,采用5年滑动均值法、Mann-Kendall分析法、Morlet小波变换法及R/S分析法等探讨了降水量和气温的趋势性、突变性和周期性,并预测了序列未来的演变趋势。结果表明,南昌市年降水量年内呈单峰分布,最大降水量出现在5月30日,总体呈不显著增加变化,1955、1992、2000年发生突变,存在22年的主周期及4年的次周期,降水未来将持续增加;南昌市年内温差大,月平均气温极值比为5.57,年平均气温总体呈显著上升变化,在1997年发生突变,存在23年的主周期及17、4年的次周期,年平均气温未来将呈继续显著上升变化趋势。     

Characteristics of day‐ahead wind power forecast errors in Nordic countries and benefits of aggregation

The growing proportion of wind power in the Nordic power system increases day‐ahead forecasting errors, which have a link to the rising need for balancing power. However, having a large interconnected synchronous power system has its benefits, because it enables to aggregate imbalances from large geographical areas. In this paper, day‐ahead forecast errors from four Nordic countries and the impacts of wind power plant dispersion on forecast errors in areas of different sizes are studied. The forecast accuracy in different regions depends on the amount of the total wind power capacity in the region, how dispersed the capacity is and the forecast model applied. Further, there is a saturation effect involved, after which the reduction in the relative forecast error is not very large anymore. The correlations of day‐ahead forecast errors between areas decline rapidly when the distance increases. All error statistics show a strong decreasing trend up to the area sizes of 50,000 km². The average mean absolute error (MAE) in different regions is 5.7% of installed capacity. However, MAE of a smaller area can be over 8% of the capacity, but when all the Nordic regions are aggregated together, the capacity‐normalized MAE decreases to 2.5%. The average of the largest errors for different regions is 39.8% and when looking at the largest forecast errors for smaller areas, the largest errors can exceed 80% of the installed capacity, whereas at the Nordic level, the maximum forecast error is only 13.5% of the installed capacity. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于AHP和GIS的吕梁地区小流域山洪灾害风险区划

为准确评价山西省吕梁地区石楼县的山洪灾害风险,从山洪灾害的形成条件和流域基本情况出发,选取降雨、地形、河流水系和历史洪水四个因子为危险性评价指标;选取人口密度、耕地面积百分比和单位面积生产总值三个因子为易损性评价指标。利用层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标权重,并依托ArcGIS空间分析叠加功能得到石楼县山洪灾害危险性分布图、石楼县山洪灾害易损性分布图以及石楼县山洪灾害风险分布图。结果表明,石楼县山洪灾害风险系数最小值为0.002,最大值为0.568。低风险、中低风险、中等风险和高风险等级面积占全县面积比例分别为18.21%、26.33%、26.08%、29.38%。分析结果可为同类小流域的山洪灾害风险区划提供参考,也可为有关部门防洪减灾提供依据。     

水电站施工度汛方案优化设计分析

随着经济的发展以及社会的进步,水电站在我国正逐渐得到越来越广泛的应用,在水电站的施工过程中,常常会遇到各种难以预料的情形,这就需要在设计方案的时候根据实际工作中的经验以及通过科学分析等方式得出的可能出现的状况进行种种提前的处理及解决方案。水电站的施工质量之所以需要得到严格把控,因为其质量对于水电站的功能能不能得到最大程度的发挥起着决定性的作用。正是因为上述原因,对于水电站施工必须层层把关,严格按照相关标准来进行,这样才能使得水电站工程的质量以及功能得到有效的保障与实施。本文对水电站施工过程中可能出现的与度汛有关的情形做了相关的总结,并结合实际经验根据度汛方案进行了一定的分析与探讨,希望能对实践起到一定的作用。     

基于LS-SVM的混凝土断裂参数回归与预测

选择最小二乘支持向量机对混凝土测量中存在的大样本数据进行回归分析以及预测。研究表明:利用LS-SVM模型进行混凝土测量当中存在的大样本数据回归分析具有精度高,速度快等优点。模型不需建立方程式,修改容易,可处理被干扰的数据,具有较强的概括性。利用LS-SVM对冻融作用下的混凝土的断裂韧度进行回归分析以及断裂预测,模型较好的反映了断裂韧度的下降趋势。     

GIS技术在城市防洪排涝中的应用分析

随着城镇化进程不断加快以及气候变暖带来的极端气候变化,部分城市接连遭受大型洪涝灾害。暴雨洪涝在引起媒体与公众普遍关注的同时,也给城市管理部门的防御和对策研究带来了新的难题。GIS技术在空间信息分析上的广泛应用为城市应对汛期洪涝灾害提供了新方法和新思路。     

基于县域的黑龙江省山洪灾害风险区划

为分析黑龙江省的山洪灾害风险区划情况，基于GIS技术，利用研究区基础地理数据和该区域各地市/县统计资料，在深入分析研究山洪灾害成因与时空分布特征的基础上，对该区域各区县山洪灾害风险进行区划，得到各区县的风险等级，然后根据历史滑坡点和当地的实际情况对风险区划进行验证。结果表明，分析结果与实际情况吻合，可作为区域山洪防治工作的参考依据。